Simon Goerlach (Bocconi University)
CReAM - Brown Bag Seminar Simon Goerlach (Bocconi University) Terrorism, education, and the role of perceptions: Evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya (joint with Marco Alfano)
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12.30pm - 1.30pm (UK time)
Location: Drayton 321
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About the event

This paper investigates how terrorism alters human capital investment through perceived uncertainty. Using various estimators, we identify a negative causal effect of terrorism on Kenyan school enrolment. Among these, we exploit al-Shabaab's revenue streams and position in the al-Qaeda network to predict attacks. To isolate the significant contribution of behavioural responses to changes in the expected risk and returns to schooling, we use finely geo-coded data on children's closest schools and border discontinuities in educational provision. We further estimate the impact of terrorist threats and media coverage of attacks. Finally, we evaluate the relative importance of perceived risk and expected returns to schooling within a structural model, and use it to predict individuals' earnings loss arising from the reduction in schooling.

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Online format and rules
  • The online seminars are held on Zoom and last 75 minutes; 60 minutes are allocated to the seminar and 15 minutes for discussion
  • The online seminars are held on Zoom and last 60 minutes including discussion.
  • The link to each seminar will appear above prior to the start time. Please email h.ku@ucl.ac.uk si.xu.20@ucl.ac.uk if you have not received the password by the day of the seminar.
  • The moderator will collect audience questions in chat or using the 'raise hand' function, but feel free to interrupt the presenter for short questions or clarifications.
  • Please keep your camera on and your microphone off except when asking questions.
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