Berkay Ozcan (London School of Economics)
CReAM Brown Bag Seminars Berkay Ozcan (London School of Economics) 'Natives’ fertility response to mass migration: Evidence from Syrian Migration to Turkey'
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12.30pm - 1.30pm (UK time)
Location: Drayton 321
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About the event

The empirical literature on the effects of migration on receiving populations has largely ignored fertility outcomes of natives. Statistical models of population projections estimating the impact of migration inflows on population growth often assumed that natives do not change their fertility behaviour as a response to immigration. We challenge this assumption and address the gap in the literature by showing that fertility outcomes of natives are affected by migration. Using exogenous geographical variation provided by the massive forced migration from the Northern Syria to specific Turkish provinces shortly after 2011, we show that natives in the affected provinces increase their fertility considerably compared to the provinces that are less affected by mass migration. We provide additional analyses to explore mechanisms at play and to show heterogeneity in the fertility response by population subgroups, using three independent datasets: 1) Administrative Data on Vital Statistics, 2) Turkish Labor Force Surveys 3) Gallup Surveys. Our preliminary results show that fertility increase in natives is primarily driven by the behaviour of prime age, low-skilled natives, and by homemakers. We rule out mechanisms related to the cost of childcare, house prices and we suggest that mechanisms related to social interactions (e.g. competitive breeding or cultural diffusion) are plausible.

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Please check back closer to the event for more details.

Online format and rules
  • The online seminars are held on Zoom and last 75 minutes; 60 minutes are allocated to the seminar and 15 minutes for discussion
  • The online seminars are held on Zoom and last 60 minutes including discussion.
  • The link to each seminar will appear above prior to the start time. Please email h.ku@ucl.ac.uk si.xu.20@ucl.ac.uk if you have not received the password by the day of the seminar.
  • The moderator will collect audience questions in chat or using the 'raise hand' function, but feel free to interrupt the presenter for short questions or clarifications.
  • Please keep your camera on and your microphone off except when asking questions.
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